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The Increase in Demand is in Parallel with the Serious lag in Reserves, Gas Prices have Skyrocketed
The Increase in Demand is in Parallel with the Serious lag in Reserves, Gas Prices have Skyrocketed

After entering the heating period, the domestic demand for natural gas is increasing obviously. Recently, domestic natural gas prices have risen rapidly.

The industry believes that the situation of the explosion of natural gas consumption this year, on the one hand, due to the strengthening of environmental protection and the continuous promotion of "coal to gas". On the other hand, natural gas reserves are seriously lagging behind.

And the short supply of natural gas has also led to a rise in the price of natural gas.

With the soaring price of natural gas, the downstream has become unaffordable. And because of supply shortages, oil companies such as CNPC have to restrict LNG factories in some areas to ensure civilian use.

Analysts said this winter gas supply situation is grim, and the downstream is desperate for price increasing. Some factories have to stop production because it is difficult to take too high prices.

Gas reserves have been severely delayed

Since the beginning of this year, the "coal change gas" has been in full swing all over the country, which has led to increasing consumption of natural gas. The supply of natural gas has been exacerbated by the start of winter heating.

According to the supply and demand forecast, the total gas supply gap in heating season this year is 10.5 billion cubic meters.

Liu Deshun, Director of the Oil and Gas Division of the Energy Administration, said recently, influenced by macroeconomic stabilization, low gas prices, adequate supply, increased prevention and control of air pollution, clean heating and supporting policies in the north, natural gas consumption has recovered significantly, and it has grown faster since winter.

In order to cope with the tension in natural gas supply, oil companies such as PetroChina have begun to take relevant measures.

The reporter of Securities Daily learned that since September, the gas pipeline volume of the terminal pipeline in North China and East China has been tightened. China's oil sector has implemented gas limitation, involving many areas such as Henan, Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia.

Meanwhile, in order to co-ordinate natural gas resources and guide the marketization of natural gas prices, natural gas marketing company of CNPC participated in the auction of natural gas in Shanghai petroleum and natural gas trading center. The price cost 20% more, and some areas without enough gases bid with the highest price.

Yesterday, Zhang Yuqing, the Former Deputy Director of the National Energy Bureau, said at the Fifth China's natural gas market development conference. The main reason for the rising price of natural gas is the serious lagging of the reserve construction. Because the peak valley gap in the north is more than 16 percent in winter, lacking of the estimate of this year's situation, coupled with a severe lag in reserves, led to a sharp increase in prices this year.

"The explosive growth of the gas this year is unexpected by many people, including CNPC and CNOOC, which found it difficult to sell gas." Liu Deshun also pointed out.

The analyst of Zhuo Chuang information told the securities daily, 2017 is the year of transition of natural gas from cold to heat in China. With the coming of the winter heating period, the pressure of gas supply is more severe.

Gas price soaring to downstream manufacturers to stop production

With the rapid recovery of natural gas consumption, the highly marketable LNG reaction is most sensitive. The high price of natural gas has made it hard for the downstream to absorb, and some even stopped production.

According to the data from Baichuan, the gas consumption of gaseous natural gas in China was 124.5 billion cubic meters in January and August, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. The apparent consumption of LNG was 27.48 million tons, with year-on-year growth of 39.8%.

Petrochina said it is expected to continue to see strong downstream demand for natural gas this winter. According to the resource arrangement, during the four months of winter from the middle of November, the LNG terminal of Jiangsu LNG terminal will have a record high. It is expected that there will be 31 ships LNG in 4 months, 3 billion 390 million cubic meters of gas transmission, and 21% over the same period last year.

At the same time, from November 1, the price of natural gas from Petrochina to Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia will be raised to 1.88 yuan/m3, the second price increase since September.

It is necessary to mention that in the heating season, Beijing, Shanxi and Jiangxi provinces have recently raised the price of non-resident natural gas gate stations by about 10%.

Although natural gas prices have been raised repeatedly, the supply of natural gas is still unable to meet the demand.

In November 21st, a document from CNPC said that the daily intake of 20 million cubic meters per day was reduced, and the domestic oil field resources were short of 6 million cubic meters per day. The LNG receiving station has reached the maximum gasification capacity of 90 million cubic meters per day.

According to the statistics from Zhongyu Information, since October when the upstream factory experienced the first round of gas limit, the LNG market has risen sharply. On Saturday, the Northwest LNG market was up 950 yuan / ton, the highest rise in the last five years. The increase of 550 yuan per ton again yesterday, leading the national LNG market to 7000 yuan / ton.

Because of the shortage of natural gas, LNG is difficult to get.

Sun Yang, a Zhongyu information analyst, told Securities Daily, the factory price of domestic LNG factory is basically set at 7000 yuan/ton, which is not only 50 yuan per ton higher than nation6# diesel oil, but also a price of 150 yuan/ton to 250 yuan per ton higher than nation5# diesel oil. And the delivery price of LNG tanker is higher than diesel vehicles. As a result, the price of terminal LNG is higher than diesel, which has deprived LNG of its economic advantage.

And the soaring price of natural gas has made the LNG factory face a difficult situation.

"Due to the high price of domestic LNG plant, some downstream LNG filling stations have shut down, which is not conducive to the long-term development of the LNG market. "Sun Yang also pointed out that the situation of natural gas supply this winter is severe and the gases resources is so insufficient, the LNG plant is very helpless to the increasing of the price.  In a general increase in the situation, if you do not continue to follow up and cause loading plan bursting, but no solution can be installed, it will also bring damage to corporate reputation. This winter the upstream companies need to increase imports of LNG to effectively alleviate the gap in our gas supply.

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